The illegal immigration question will go away on its own

[ITWhore]

www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=062807C

Interesting, and makes a lot of sense.

Quote:As the debate over illegal immigration from Mexico rages in Washington and across the country, and as the administration's reform bill hangs by a thread, few Americans are aware that this problem will automatically decline and eventually become a vague memory.

There has been a stunning decline in the fertility rate in Mexico, which means that, in a few years there will not be many teenagers in Mexico looking for work in the United States or anywhere else. If this trend in the fertility rate continues, Mexico will resemble Japan and Italy - rapidly aging populations with too few young workers to support the economy.

According to the World Bank's 2007 Annual Development Indicators, in 1990 Mexico had a fertility rate of 3.3 children per female, but by 2005, that number had fallen by 36 percent to 2.1, which is the Zero Population Growth rate. That is an enormous decline in the number of Mexican infants per female. The large number of women currently in their reproductive years means that there are still quite a few babies, but as this group ages, the number of infants will decline sharply. If this trend toward fewer children per female continues, there being no apparent reason for it to cease, the number of young people in the Mexican population will decline significantly just when the number of elderly is rising. As labor markets in Mexico tighten and wage rates rise, far fewer Mexican youngsters will be interested in coming to the United States. Since our baby boomers will be retiring at the same time, we could face a severe labor shortage.

[David Cressey]

Mexico is in the process of moving from third world to first world,  or something like it.  Perhaps "preindustiral to industrial"  is a better description.

Plummeting birth rates are part of that phenomenon.

However, keep your eye on the Guatemala-Mexico border.  That's where the battle will shift to.
 

[JBB]

Yes, it does make a lot of sense, especially when you disregard the substantial migration of child-bearing age men and women across the border.  Of course, the birth rate would drop, they're moving north to have children in the United States.  No, I'm not saying every single one, but enough to affect the birth rate.

[codger]

Possibly the decline in the Mexican birthrate can be attributed to its people's falling away from the teachings of the Catholic church. (Birth control measures and increasing numbers of abortions.)

Just a WAG.

[David Cressey]

[JBB]

Yeah, we're getting the number all the time.  Illegal aliens step right up every day and volunteer.  I had one just the other day walk up and as "do you know where I can take some tests and volunteer in studies?"  Very convenient that was.

[David Cressey]

Quote:Yeah, we're getting the number all the time. Illegal aliens step right up every day and volunteer. I had one just the other day walk up and as "do you know where I can take some tests and volunteer in studies?" Very convenient that was

Such a study would be tainted anyway.  Demographers know better than to rely on volunteers. Get serious.  How many babies are being born in the US to Mexican parents (legal or illegal)?

Or are you just venting?

[JBB]

I'm not venting, merely commenting on the illogic of the request.  Illegals are not going to volunteer for a study of any kind, it's just not going to happen.  My original statement on the subject was/is entirely subjective, based on my observation of the dramatic increase in the numbers of illegal aliens in my region of the country over this past decade.

How do I know they're illegal?  Well, given that my understanding is that the number of green cards issued a year to new immigrants is somewhere around 50,000 and they come from all over the world, not just South America, I'm making an educated guess.  Of course, playing into that is the complete lack of English language skills.