The other case of thinking machines comes from real life, in the stock market. A few years ago, there was an anomaly lasting about a half an hour. In about 12 minutes, for no apparent reason, the stock market dropped about 600 points in 12 minutes. After that, it began to correct itself, and had retutrned to near normal by the end of the event. I never saw a detailed analysis of that event, but I attribute it to thinking machines.
The response of the thinking human beings was to implement tighter "circuit breaker" rules on the market. The "circuit breaker" is another thinking machine. We are awaiting the disaster that is caused when the market gets closed in a case where the right thing would have been to keep it open.
In short, if we were to mount a Butlerian Jihad now, half of the muhajadeen would employ thinking machines to carry out the Jihad, without even knowing it. That carries the same risks as helping Bin Laden defeat the Soviets.