"Taliban 'poised to retake Afghanistan' after NATO pullout"

[I D Shukhov]

http://news.yahoo.com/taliban-poised-retake-afghanistan-nato-pullout-063452031.html

The U.S. military said in a secret report that the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, are set to retake control of Afghanistan after NATO-led forces withdraw, raising the prospect of a major failure of Western policy after a costly war.

I really don't get wars where all the opponents have to do is to wait us out.   If there isn't a likely resolution in our favor, we shouldn't be going to war.   A "resolution strategy" -- which has a high probability of being permanent -- should be very clear before we start something and then start wondering what the "exit strategy" is going to be.

Next up appears to be Iran, basically on the same grounds as Iraq:  i.e. WMD.   The Washington Post is running a story today:  Iran, perceiving threat from West, willing to attack on U.S. soil, U.S. intelligence report finds:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-is-prepared-to-launch-terrorist-attacks-in-us-intelligence-report-finds/2012/01/30/gIQACwGweQ_story.html?tid=pm_pop

Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta added new rhetorical heat during an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” program that aired Sunday, saying that Iran was probably one year away from being able to build a bomb. He added that it could take a year or two beyond that to develop the ability to deliver a warhead by missile.  “That’s a red line for us, and it’s a red line, obviously, for the Israelis,” Panetta said. “If we have to do it, we will do it,” he added, declining to elaborate on what “it” means.

So if Iran doesn't open up to inspections and have their nuclear program highly monitored, and stop working on a missile program, I see Israel going to war in a year or two and the U.S. getting involved.   Is the "end resolution" going to be that we and/or Israel occupy  the country?  Is Israel going to occupy Iran? 

I have to say, I'm more in favor of sanctions and a circle-the-wagons strategy:  i.e. go full bore on a missile defense program and do whatever's necessary to beef up homeland security.

[DG9]

Afghanistan - US fuels Afghan efforts to fight the soviets and brings down ussr, then gets in a similar style conflict a few year down the road.  ?
Vietnam - See France, do not rinse repeat, but we do. ?
History. ?  All over simplified, but "Helloooo, People!"

I think "it" refers to Israel turning Iran into a parking lot. IMHO.

[TRexx]

There may have been valid reasons for going to war in Afghanistan in 2001, and initially we had some major successes. But once we invaded Iraq it became a side show.  I wonder how things would have turned out if we hadn't gone into Iraq and were able to give the  Afghanistan campaign the attention it needed.

Late in his life McNamara spoke openly about Viet Nam and the mistakes that were made.  I wonder if Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld will do the same.

[The Gorn]

The Iraq and Afghanistan "police actions" have been driven by hubris of the US.

Iraq was utterly unnecessary. Afghanistan is pointless because it's unwinnable and their leaders are corrupt as hell. We cant' even trust Pakistan.

Late in his life McNamara spoke openly about Viet Nam and the mistakes that were made.  I wonder if Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld will do the same.

No, they have too much of a self righteous stick up their asses.

[Origisaurus]

There may have been valid reasons for going to war in Afghanistan in 2001, and initially we had some major successes. But once we invaded Iraq it became a side show.  I wonder how things would have turned out if we hadn't gone into Iraq and were able to give the  Afghanistan campaign the attention it needed.

The only real accomplishment was that it kept Bin Laden on the defensive operationally.  We'll never know how many 9/11 style attacks didn't happen because of that.

Late in his life McNamara spoke openly about Viet Nam and the mistakes that were made.

Bobby Mac was really good at fessing up to the mistakes he thought others had made.  Never once did he question his own micromanaging.  His later career at the IMF isn't all that impressive, either.

[benali72]

This whole tragedy was pretty predictable, based on the history of Afghanistan (which hasn't been a country since the king, if even then) and the history of US involvements in Asian theater guerilla wars.

Back when we invaded in late 2001, I told my friends --

1. Ten years from now, we'll still be there.
2. When we finally do pull out, there will be lots of discussion about whether we achieved our objectives or not. But we'll finally be so desperate to reduce our cost burden and get most of our troops out that the negatives will be papered over for public consumption.

I don't know the answers. I do claim to foresee the problems better than what the popular press feeds us.